NoProfit?NoPay! (reg) with the Prophet of Profit” (reg) since Feb 2004
(A subsidiary of cybermarket.com.au Pty Ltd established 1997)
TRIFECTA BETTING- THE MOST FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTION!
Trifecta betting is actually quite mathematically complex and to be done properly you should at a minimum have a calculator with you and preferably a pre-programmed computer. (For those interested see Commonsense Punting A Mathematical Approach by Roger Dedman or either Winning More or Winning in the 90’s by Don Scott, alternatively email email@example.com with any questions)
Our products, however, are geared to the mainly once a week punter who is usually short on time to get too complicated, so after many trials, we have evolved a selection system for trifectas, that whilst not mathematically precise should give you a good chance of winning.
Here is it how it works:-
1. We select races where we think there may be some value in trifecta betting. These will usually, but not always be different to Standout & Exotic races ie there could be overlapping.
2. We give you 8 selections in those races, ranked in order, to help you go deep enough if required to get the trifecta.
3. This is important! We further classify the 8 selections into categories to help you with your outlay decisions. Every time you see a * next to a horse’s number it means that horse is rated at least 1 length superior to those that follow. Horses that do not have a * next to them are deemed to be so close to each other in ratings, that if you are going to include one of them, you should include all of them. If you cannot afford it you probably should not bet on that race, although with flexibet you have the luxury of being able to include all the numbers you think necessary to get the trifecta and then nominating the amount you want to bet.
Not that we would recommend it unless it was a race like the Melbourne Cup with a huge pool, but you can box 8 numbers for $56 and get 1/6th of the dividend, better to get 1/6th of a dividend than get nothing because you could not afford to include all the chances!
To illustrate, say selections show 2,3*, 1,7,5,10,8,6 . This means that 2+3 are rated at least 1 length superior to 1,7,5,10,8,6 which do not have much between them, and your minimum trifecta bet should be 2,3/2,3/ 1,7,5,10,8,6 costing $12 or your maximum bet should be 23/123567810/123567810 costing $84.
With unitab you could also take a roving trifecta with 2,3 as the rovers and 1,7,5,10,8,6 costing $30 and here BOTH 2 and 3 would have to be in the placings for you to win. The advantage of this method is that if any of 1,7,5,10,8,6 could upset the fancied two you would collect, and probably collect quite nicely.
Often a race on face value looks like a guaranteed roving trifecta bet with two numbers as rovers, but the problem can be that the two rovers could be at short prices and it is unlikely you will cover your outlay unless something beats both of them. If you do not think that could happen then don’t bet.
Taking one horse as a rover is much less risky but is more expensive, if the ratings looked like 1*2345*678 you could take 1 as the rover with 2345 which would cost you $36 or to go wider 1 as the rover with 2345678 which would cost $126.
Here the 1 must run 1st.2nd or 3rd with any of the other numbers filling the other 2 places for you to collect.
If on the other hand the ratings looked like 2,5*1*34*698, here you could bet as follows :-2/125/12345 and 5/125/12345 both costing $12, 25/12345/12345698 costing $48, 25/125/12345698 costing $24 and so on.
Say Ratings were 6,1,13,3*2,4,5,10 – here your trifecta should include the top four for the win, say 6,1,13,3/6,1,13,3/6,1,13,3,2,4 costing $48 at least and preferably 6,1,13,3/6,1,13,3,2,/6,1,13,3,2,4,5,10 costing $96, if this is too expensive or looks as though the trifecta will not equal the outlay, then stay away from the race, or use flexibet to get a percentage return.
(again it is not mathematically precise but multiplying the odds of your horses together will normally give you a feel as to what the trifecta will pay, so the lower odds give you your minimum payout and investment criteria & the higher odds give you your best case scenario – if you want the precise formula email us, indeed email us with any questions you have on this topic)
4. Here are some common trifecta bet types:-
(a) The most common, most inefficient and most expensive is boxing. Boxing 8 selections costs $336 or $168 for ½, so your bank had better be large and you should ensure that the dividend will be worth the outlay! Professionals call this mugs money.
(b) The next most common is the pyramid or standout system which can take a number of forms. One example is when one horse is rated above 7 other horses that are close together. Rather than back the highest rated horse straight out you may get better value by having a 1/2,3,4,5,6,7,8/2,3,4,5,6,7,8 trifecta costing $42 or $21 for a half.
Other examples are 123/1234/123456 costing $36, 1234/12345/123456 costing $64, 12/12345/12345678 costing $48, etc
We have found that given the fact that our strike rate for winning from our top two selections is high (just under 50%) that the last combination is usually the best of them, as there is around a 1 in 2 chance of getting the winner, and the 5 horses for 2nd and 8 horses for 3rd means that there is a chance to get a long priced horse in those positions.
We call this the 2/5/8 formula and when in doubt suggest you fall back on it or at the most a 3/5/8 combination.
(click here and then click on 22/10/09 under Trifecta heading for an actual illustration)
The 8 selections were not randomly chosen, we first tested 6 numbers but found we missed too many good priced trifectas with 7th or 8th rated horses running 3rd. We then trialled 9 & 10 numbers but found the extra outlay was not warranted. Then we tried 8 numbers and after 18 months of trials this was the number that produced the best balance between outlay and return.
However there is no set formula and you really should assess each race on its merits and use the* next to horses to guide you as to which trifecta combination you choose, but we can tell you as we keep daily stats, that spending $24 for a 50% dividend from a 2/5/8 combination trifecta far out performs spending the same amount of money and boxing the top 4 selections.
We can also tell you that whilst over some periods 3/5/8 trifecta combination outperforms the 2/5/8 combination particularly at Carnival time, over the long term the extra outlay for a 3/5/8 trifecta $72 as opposed to $48, tells and 2/5/8 comes out on top.
So as said above assess each race on its merits, but it appears that if in doubt either don’t bet or fall back on the 2/5/8 combination.
Remember what ever your method of betting it all comes back to strike rate and return, if you are going to outlay $50 on a trifecta then with a strike rate of 1 in 4 you will need a dividend of $200 just to break square. The * are there to help you minimise your outlay.
If you are betting on other than our selections also remember that with a few exceptions it is hardly ever worthwhile taking a trifecta in a field that does not have 10 runners or more.
Good luck with the selections, and do not hesitate to email us at firstname.lastname@example.org re any questions.
Includes all Flemington action Derby Day 3rd November Australia's biggest day of racing, Melbourne Cup 6th Nov. Oaks Day 8th Nov. and Emirates Day Sat 10th November and all other Feature Races (Listed or Above) anywhere in Australia!